This article was originally shared by Plant for the Planet.
Brazil wants to create the world's biggest rainforest fund: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). We developed a research and transparency tool that shows how much money each country would receive.
Tutzing, Germany, September 22, 2025. Brazilian President Lula da Silva is expected to announce a big investment into the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) at the UN in New York on Tuesday. That will kick-off what's expected to be a $125 billion investment fund that will give money to countries to protect their rainforests. The fund is set to officially launch at COP 30 in November. While several countries have shown interest, no firm investment commitments have yet been made.
In anticipation, Plant-for-the-Planet is launching a tool to track those investments and their impact: TFFF Watch Beta. Based on satellite data, it provides country-specific estimates of how much funding each rainforest country would receive. Once the TFFF is operational, it will track future developments and the fund's impact.
How the TFFF works: conservation rewarded, deforestation penalized.
What sets the TFFF apart from other forest protection programs is its innovative financing model. By investing funds provided by governments and private investors, the TFFF aims to generate stable, long-term revenue.
Countries receive $4 per hectare of preserved forest, but only if:
- The average deforestation rate over the last three years is below 0.5%,
- the degradation rate decreases in the year they join the TFFF.
Deforestation and degradation will be penalized by the fund through deductions from the payments:
- $400 per hectare deforested under a total rate of 0.3%,
- $800 per hectare deforested above a total rate of 0.3%,
- $140 per hectare degraded through fire.
Additionally, at least 20 percent of a country's payout must be allocated to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs).
How much money will countries get from the TFFF?
We used the TFFF methodology outlined in Concept Note 3 and satellite data to model the potential payouts for each rainforest country. At current deforestation levels, only 20 of the 74 countries with eligible rainforest would qualify immediately for payouts (see map above). A further 20 countries come close to being eligible.
Handsome reward for Papua New Guinea
Today, Papua has the lowest deforestation rate of the big rainforest countries. About 80% of the island's forest remains intact, and it is home to one tenth of the world's species.
That would be rewarded generously. If TFFF were already operational, the country would receive $122 million this year based on its 2024 conservation efforts. If Papua ended deforestation entirely, their annual reward could increase to $154m.
Will Brazil benefit from its own invention?
With the largest rainforest in the world, Brazil stands to benefit the most from the TFFF. If it were to end deforestation completely, it would be eligible for payouts of $1.4 billion per year. But at this point, it wouldn't necessarily qualify.
According to TFFF Watch analysis, Brazil just fulfills the first requirement to join – a deforestation rate below 0.5% – with a rate of 0.47%. Regarding the second requirement – a declining deforestation rate – TFFF Watch shows a slight 0.01 percentage point deforestation increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the change is so small that it may not even be registered using other methods of measuring deforestation.
Considering the rapid decline of Brazilian deforestation rates since the beginning of Lula's administration in 2023 it is quite likely that deforestation will once again decline in 2025 and the country will be eligible once the TFFF becomes operational in 2026.
Since the country's deforestation rate is still considerable, the first payout will likely be around $568m, a bit over a third of its maximum potential.
No pay out for the Democratic Republic of the Congo
With the third-largest tropical rainforest (99.7 million hectares of eligible forest), DR Congo has the potential to receive a payout of up to $399 million annually. But its three-year average deforestation rate is above 0.5%, so the DR Congo would not qualify for a payout at this time.
In 2024 alone, the DR Congo lost 0.7 million hectares of forest (0.7% of its total eligible forest), driven by shifting agriculture, wood-fuel harvesting, and small-scale logging. Ongoing military conflict also makes addressing environmental degradation difficult.
Why Plant-for-the-Planet built TFFF Watch
Plant-for-the-Planet launches TFFF Watch as part of its mission to conserve and restore forests around the globe. As an independent transparency tool, it enables governments, institutions, stakeholders and civil society to explore the TFFF's implications and monitor its outcomes in the future.
“The TFFF represents a powerful opportunity to secure long-term funding for tropical forest protection. However, firm investment commitments are urgently necessary,” says Felix Finkbeiner, founder of Plant-for-the-Planet. Countries like Germany, China and Norway, have already expressed their support – yet concrete investment commitments are still lacking. "We can't prevent the climate crisis without stopping the rapid destruction of our rainforests. The TFFF ensures rainforest countries have an incentive to do that.”
He concludes: “The TFFF is the first solution that matches the scale of the deforestation crisis. COP30 in Belém must be the moment governments bring it to life. We cannot let this historic opportunity pass us by. We are running out of time."
Limitations of the TFFF Watch beta version
TFFF Watch Beta has its limitations:
- We estimate potential payouts based on current (up to 2024) deforestation data. By the time the TFFF becomes operational, 2025 deforestation data will be available that will impact which countries are eligible.
- Our model is based on the Global Forest Watch dataset. Other global forest models, such as the Joint Research Centre's may come to different conclusions.
- We had to make assumptions in areas where Concept Note 3 did not prescribe a detailed methodology. Where possible, we opted for using Global Forest Watch definitions.
- Under the TFFF, each rainforest country is to maintain its own data model (that meets the Facility's technical standards) and submit their results to receive their payout. No such models have been published yet, thus TFFF Watch Beta is an independent global model.
Please cite this data as “http://tfffwatch.org/as “tfffwatch.org by Plant-for-the-Planet”.
Webinar
For more information and a demo on how TFFF Watch works, we would like to invite you to a webinar during New York Climate Week with the creators of the tool: Felix Finkbeiner (Founder), Pakhi Das (Public Policy Advisor) and Tushar Bharadwaj (Remote Sensing Data Scientist).
Date: 23.09.2025
Time: 12 am ET / 6 pm CEST
Platform: Zoom – Please register here
A second webinar will take place in the week after the New York Climate Week
Date: 29.09.2025
Time: 10 am ET / 4 pm CEST
Platform: Zoom – Please register here.
Resources
Please access all graphics in high resolution here. See our methodology for more information. We plan to update the model as new data becomes available, we receive feedback and further rules are published. More information about the TFFF.
About Plant-for-the-Planet
Plant-for-the-Planet is a global initiative fighting for climate justice and a livable future for all. To do so, we empower children and youth to speak up and take action now. We protect and restore forest ecosystems, conduct research and provide free software tools and advice to restoration organizations around the world.
We believe that the world's three trillion trees need to be protected and we are part of bringing back a further trillion trees.