This story was originally shared by SOS Mata Atlântica Fundação.

The forests of Brazil’s Atlantic Forest are growing back — but part of this recovery does not last. That is the finding of a new study conducted by the SOS Mata Atlântica Foundation and the Center for Science for Development (CCD) – Atlantic Forest Strategy, with support from iCS, Fapesp, Ipê, the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact, The Nature Conservancy (TNC), and the Secretariat for Environment, Infrastructure, and Logistics of the Government of the State of São Paulo.

Between 1993 and 2022, 4.9 million hectares entered a process of natural regeneration — an area larger than the state of Rio de Janeiro and equivalent to 16% of the biome’s current forest cover. Of this total, 3.8 million hectares (78%) remain standing (known as persistent recovery), while 1.1 million hectares (22%) were deforested again (ephemeral recovery).

According to Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, Executive Director of SOS Mata Atlântica and co-author of the study, the numbers expose the contradiction that currently defines the biome. “The Atlantic Forest shows an impressive capacity for natural regeneration, even under pressure, but part of this forest continues to be cleared. We are gaining and losing forests at the same time,” he says.

Much of this regeneration occurs on private lands and is driven by small rural landowners, who account for 45% of the total recovered area. In many cases, vegetation regrows naturally or through reforestation efforts along field edges, riverbanks, and steep slopes where agricultural use is limited. “It is on small farms that regeneration has shown the greatest strength and persistence, playing a key role in restoring springs, reconnecting forest fragments, and storing carbon,” adds the director.

Beyond restoring vegetation cover, this process contributes significantly to climate balance. The study estimates that regenerated forests accumulated 98 million tons of carbon between 1993 and 2022. On the other hand, areas deforested again after regenerating resulted in emissions of 22 million tons, offsetting part of the environmental gains.

Minas Gerais, Paraná, and São Paulo lead regeneration

The states of Minas Gerais and Paraná lead both persistent regeneration, with more than 900,000 hectares each, and ephemeral regeneration, with 263,000 hectares and 192,000 hectares, respectively — but they are also the states with the highest deforestation rates. Next come São Paulo (479,000 ha), Santa Catarina (362,000 ha), Rio Grande do Sul, and Bahia. In the case of ephemeral regeneration, after Minas and Paraná, the highlights are Rio Grande do Sul (144,000 ha), Santa Catarina, Bahia, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo.

The study shows that São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo already have a positive balance of native cover: the area of forest that regrows exceeds that which is still being lost. This phenomenon, known as forest transition, indicates that in regions where deforestation has decreased and protection has consolidated, the forest is reclaiming space. “These are states that have already gone through the most critical phase of destruction and are now experiencing a cycle of net recovery. It’s a sign that when pressure decreases and protection policies are maintained, the forest responds,” explains Jean-Paul Metzger, researcher at the Institute of Biosciences of the University of São Paulo and also a co-author of the study.

Although the advance of regeneration reveals the resilience of the Atlantic Forest, the numbers show that this returning forest may still be lost if there are no policies to ensure its permanence. To that end, the researchers propose a combination of effective enforcement and financial incentives — prioritizing small rural properties and lands with low agricultural potential, where the opportunity cost is lower and the environmental impact is higher. Suggested measures include strengthening the Atlantic Forest Deforestation Prevention and Control Plan (PPCDMA), the National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (Planaveg), and expanding Payment for Environmental Services (PES) programs. Furthermore, since much of the regeneration occurs in Legal Reserves, the implementation of the Native Vegetation Protection Law (also known as the New Forest Code) is urgent.

“An ally of both the climate and the rural economy, forest regeneration is an agenda that benefits society as a whole. If we manage to consolidate this process — combined with restoration and effective incentive policies — the Atlantic Forest could become an international benchmark for ecosystem recovery. The study shows we already have a significant base of naturally regenerating forests, but it is up to us to ensure they grow, persist, and inspire other biomes across Brazil and the world,” concludes Metzger.

The study “Where the forest returns and persists: the recovery of the Atlantic Forest begins on small farms” was launched on October 28 at 2:30 p.m., in a live broadcast on the YouTube and Facebook channels of the SOS Mata Atlântica Foundation, as part of the Atlantic Forest in Debate series. The event featured André Lima, Extraordinary Secretary for Deforestation Control and Environmental Land Use Planning of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, and Roberta del Giudice, Director of Forests and Public Policy at BVRio and member of Conaveg.